Monday, February 06, 2006

Watch list for week of 2-6-06

There's nothing from my market homework software this weekend that I'm too excited about. Here's the list:



Some of these stocks look to me like they may be putting in bottoms, and others are nicely consolidating in such a way that leads me to believe that higher prices are ahead. The quantity of stocks is noticably smaller this weekend, and it may have something to do with fewer stocks hitting new highs. There is a chart several people have posted to their trading blogs over the past week or two and I'll post a link to it too because it is worth looking at:

$NASI weekly chart

$NASI is a breadth indicator, and is currently near the top of a contracting range. I don't know if it will keep going higher or not, but if it starts to turn down, it will be because the market is getting hit with broad selling. I'll also be closely watching GOOG, AAPL, and SNDK to help guage market strength. I may ease back on the margin if these leading stocks start to really fall apart. I have a big position in NTRI, which is a very strong stock that has also seen a lot of significant selling lately, but fortunately is still holding at the "50 day moving average" support.

4 Comments:

At 9:46 AM, Blogger hortons768im said...

do you think this move in INCX with the news release and the analyst who hated the stock the most last year, has upgraded the stock considered bullish? any changes in the stock chart?

thanks

 
At 11:06 AM, Blogger jontait said...

I don't like situations like INCX right now, notice how it has rallied right up to the former support line? That is resistance now. In my view, the stock is no good until it CLOSES above that line, or it finds new support over time.

Right now I think the most likely outcome is that INCX will look for new support, which means I need to give it time. I don't own it right now, but still watch it.

As far as the analyst upgrades and bull news items, you have to watch the timing. In this case, the news and upgrades are happening below the current support. To me, this hints that strong hands may be dumping risk to new buyers, at least temporarily. The new buyers will be weak handed, and for good reason, so it is a winning proposition for strong hands. I'm skeptical of these sorts of unsolicited "status report" press releases and upgrades when they are used below major price support because it does not facilitate insider buying, instead they facilitate insider dumping. I like to be in stocks before and during their "price markup" advertising phases, not the "bagholder handoff" phase.

All this is just my opinion based on the chart. I don't know for certain what is happening, but I do know that with patience and a good handle on the long and short term prospects, a lot of money can be made from stocks like this.

 
At 12:53 PM, Blogger hortons768im said...

well i agree with your point. right now only thing i am looking is change in fundamentals and the analyst's creditbility. Technical, i have no idea what is going to happen, because it is looking week.

fundamentally, their traffic is growing significantly, earnings is on 23rd or so. they are expecting,i think 400K from it, as far as i believe when the management gave out guidance last quarter they weren't expecting this kind of traffic growth. so i think their number could be conservative.

also, the analyst who upgraded the stock today, he hated the stock most when this stock was in 20s and 30s.. and he put a year target of 5 and i guess he was right on the spot..

anyway, so i just have a gut feeling,but may be wrong...

this is just my opinion..take care

 
At 9:07 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I was using a screener similar to yours, and I ran across your blog and found it very intresting, also my screener today just came up with a stock with high potential, OMNI, even though the stock has debt it looks like the company is turning around, it might of hit a bottom in todays trading range, looks like they are in black period with earnings come out, whats your thought on this stock, if you have time to reseach it, ill check back, thanks

 

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