Sunday, July 31, 2005

Sunday ramblings

I'm out of town until tomorrow night, so I don't have access to my software to post a new watch list. I'll try to get the latest watch list up here late tomorrow night. Makes me wish I had the website done because then we'd all have access from anywhere.

I noticed that oil has been mentioned far less in the media lately, it's almost like it has been forgotten. Times like this are perfect for swooping in and taking some cheap shares off of people who bought too high and are underwater. I know that the low hanging fruit has already been picked from the oil tree, but if the down-side risk is low enough on a consolidating stock its hard to argue with buying some, and if you're wrong about support just close it out.

I can tell Bill Cara is getting back into his game. I get so excited about being a trader when I read great stuff like this passage from his weekly review posted yesterday:

  • I truly believe that electronic capital markets are becoming the nexus for what I call The Trading Wars, i.e., my computers against yours, except that “me” and “you” happens to be Humungous Bank & Broker and colleagues.

    The goals in this game are measured in billions, if not trillions.

    But, I’m not so sure that the independent directors on the Boards of these mega corporations really understand what’s at stake, and they ought to. This is not PlayStation.

    How long will it be before U.S. politicians take their focus off Beijing-controlled CNOOC’s traders trading in shares of Unocal (NYSE: UCL) and start to worry about other Beijing-employed traders gobbling up the pension plans of hard-working Americans by out-smarting them (and their agents) in the capital markets?

    I tell you, as sure as my name is Bill Cara, this dilemma is going to surface.

    You see, China is graduating significantly greater numbers of engineers and mathematicians annually, and they are paying them some US$500 monthly. Backed up by USD reserves of some three-quarters of a trillion Dollars, the Beijing authorities have the deepest pockets, and the best pool of human players, in the game.

    If you have heard the expression, “never play poker with someone who has deeper pockets and more skill than you” – at least for real money – then you might understand the point, which is that, in some games, you can’t win. Strategy is not enough; you get tactically over-run by the opponent's resources.

    I am starting to question whether America can win at The Trading Wars; and, the first major battle, if you will, will likely be in the bond market.


At 9:53 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

The more things change the more they stay the same.

At 8:54 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Good call on VLFG!
Should have listened to you.


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